Do we have enough to go around?
Back of napkin math. A thought exercise.
All income divided equally.
1L per month per person.
Illiquid wealth divided equally.
.5Cr per person.
Liquid wealth divided equally.
10L per person.
Not bad, but not enough to set us up for life either.
A family of four will make ~4L per month.
2Cr in wealth.
40L in liquid wealth.
Not bad.
If we distribute as .5x for kids, 1x for adults.
Then a family of four makes:
3.75L monthly (1.25L x2 and .6L x2).
2.1Cr in wealth (70L x2 and 35L x2).
Top ten economies with such income redistribution:
An American will make 40x as much as an Indian.
Economic Survey of India 2017 estimates.
Govt. subsidies transferred as direct cash.
600 rupees / month / adult.
Amounts to 5% of GDP.
First order effect of radical redistribution.
Middle class purchases will spike.
Luxury goods will collapse.
Production will re-allocate.
So, do we have enough? To eliminate poverty — yes.
For a comfortable life — yes.
Needs strict global equal redistribution.
So practically — No.
We don’t have enough.
In India, comfortable lifestyle at 1L/mo.
We need a 5x larger Indian economy.
With strict national equal redistribution.
Equal redistribution is a myth.
Current global income inequality is ~500x.
Current national income inequality:
Global 1L/mo baseline + a 10x inequality.Needs a 30x larger global economy.
With current growth rates.
With 20-50% boost from AI, Robotics.
It is 60-120 yrs away.
To get to Enough.
As I’d said - this is back of napkin - to build some basic intuition and starting point - I’m sure the math is a lot more complex than this.
References
Global income, GDP, and distribution
World Bank – World Development Indicators (GDP, population, income data)
https://data.worldbank.org/World Bank – Poverty & Inequality Platform
https://pip.worldbank.org/
OECD Income Distribution Database
https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=IDDInternational Monetary Fund Data Portal
https://www.imf.org/en/Data
Inequality (income & wealth multiples)
World Inequality Database
https://wid.world/Credit Suisse Research Institute Global Wealth Report (archived, now UBS)
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/family-office-uhnw/reports/global-wealth-report.htmlOxfam Inequality Reports
https://www.oxfam.org/en/tags/inequality
India-specific data (income, subsidies, economy)
Ministry of Finance India Economic Survey 2016–17
https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/Reserve Bank of India Database on Indian Economy
https://dbie.rbi.org.in/NITI Aayog Reports & Data
https://www.niti.gov.in/reports
Consumption patterns & demand shifts
McKinsey & Company Global Consumer Insights
https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/growth-marketing-and-sales/our-insightsPew Research Center Global Middle Class Studies
https://www.pewresearch.org/topic/economy-work/income-wealth-poverty/
AI, productivity, and growth projections
McKinsey Global Institute AI & Productivity Reports
https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/overviewGoldman Sachs AI and Global GDP report
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/generative-ai-could-raise-global-gdp-by-7-percent.htmlPwC AI Economic Impact
https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/data-and-analytics/publications/artificial-intelligence-study.html
Population & demographic baselines
United Nations – World Population Prospects
https://population.un.org/wpp/Our World in Data Income & Inequality
https://ourworldindata.org/income-inequality